AO Semifinal Preview: Boys

There's just no shaking it. This has been a very weird Australian Open. I'm not talking about results – oooh nooo (chuckles), the results have not been all that weird at all. I'm just taking about the vibes.

But all those weird vibes will be wiped away if this tournament gets a fourth straight Sincaraz Grand Slam final. I don't make the rules, although WHAT A WONDERFUL WORLD IT WOULD BE IF I DID. No, this is just how tennis works. No one remembers how you got there if they get a final or a final result that scratches their itch.

So will the Australian Open kick off the 2026 Grand Slam season where it ended last year? I mean....probably yes?

I'm sorry. Is it a hot take to say "probably"? I'm new here.

[1] Carlos Alcaraz vs. [3] Alexander Zverev (6-6)

[2] Jannik Sinner vs. [4] Novak Djokovic (6-4)

Here is what I know:

• Winning Grand Slams is TOUGH. I think we're quick to forget this because for the last 25 years we've lived through a true Golden Age of tennis where the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams made it looks RIDICULOUSLY easy for so damn long. They made it look so easy that it tricked us all into thinking that winning a Slam was only the consequence of pure skill. Don't you dare mention the word "luck" because HOW DARE YOU IMPLY THE GOATS GOT LUCKY THEY ARE LITERALLY THE BEST TO EVER DO IT.
• First of all, holy cow, calm down. It's tennis, bro. Chill.
• Second of all, YOU'RE THE ONES BEING STUPID BECAUSE THE FACT THAT THERE IS A COMPONENT OF LUCK MEANS THAT THE FEAT OF WINNING A GRAND SLAM IS EVEN HARDER AND THEREFORE THE FACT THAT YOUR GOAT HAS WON 15+ OF THEM IS EVEN MORE INCREDIBLE WHICH MEANS THAT YOUR GOAT IS EVEN MORE GOATED.

• Obviously, there are two sides to every coin of luck. The heat index cracking 5 right as Jannik Sinner looked ready to go full body cramp against Eliot Spizziri? Rough for Spizziri. Lorenzo Musetti playing the match of his life only to pull a groin muscle and retire while two sets up on the GOAT? Rough for Lorenzo. Grigor Dimitrov tearing his chest open while thoroughly beating Jannik? Rough for ALL OF US.
• Shit happens. so much so that the ATP website documented when the shit has happened:

• So yes, luck can help your Slam-winning campaign. But it can also completely derail it, as one semifinalist loudly thinks happened to him. So if you finish the two weeks on top, that is ALWAYS a massive accomplishment, and fans and pundits really need to internalize this. We can't be out here taking the biggest accomplishment in our sport for granted. We cannot be acting that stupid on main.
• All that is to say, the lucky ducks will face off in Sinner-Djokovic, except BAD LUCK for Novak, he's got some nasty blisters on his foot. That is certainly not ideal against Jannik, against whom he has lost five straight including twice at the Slams last year (Roland Garros, Wimbledon).

Novak Djokovic survives at Australian Open as Lorenzo Musetti retires hurt while two sets up

Ten-time champion Novak Djokovic survived a scare to reach the semi-finals when Lorenzo Musetti was forced to retire hurt while two sets up

The GuardianTumaini Carayol

• But the good news for Novak is he's playing Jannik at night – they have the second SF slot – and Novak seems to be far more comfortable when the sun goes down. Then again, Jannik seems to be a reverse-Superman too, so...

• After nearly collapsing in the heat in the fourth round, Jannik picked apart Ben Shelton under the lights 6-3, 6-4, 6-4. It really wasn't ever that close. So if you're telling me THAT Jannik is going to play the Novak that has nine toes and should be on a plane right now, well:

• From Tumaini Carayol: "The victory extended a number of records for Sinner. He is the fifth player in the open era to reach six consecutive grand slam semi-finals and the 24-year-old is on a 20-match winning streak, the second-longest of his career. As the two-time defending champion, he has won 23 consecutive matches at the Australian Open." (The Guardian)
• As for Carlos, he looks like he's having a great time and that usually means he's playing some pretty remarkable, pretty unbothered tennis. Everyone was wondering if he was gonna be tight and shaky after the split from Juan Carlos Ferrero and idk you be the judge:

• If there's one thing Carlos has proven time and time again, it's that it takes something very special to beat him. Percentage tennis won't do it. Jannik acknowledged as much in New York:

“I was very predictable today on court. He did many things, he changed up the game. That's also his style of how he plays. Now it's going to be on me if I want to make changes or not,” Sinner said after his 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 defeat. “That's definitely [what] we are going to work on. I'm trying to be more prepared for the next match that I will play against him.

“It also depends on how you arrive to play against Carlos. One thing is when the scoreline [or] matches before are comfortable but you always do the same things, like I did, for example, during this tournament, I didn't make one serve-volley, didn't use a lot of drop shots, and then you arrive to a point where you play against Carlos where you have to go out of the comfort zone.

“So I'm going to aim to maybe even lose some matches from now on, but trying to do some changes, trying to be a bit more unpredictable as a player, because I think that's what I have to do, trying to become a better tennis player. At the end of the day, that's my main goal.”

• So no, I don't think percentage tennis will beat Carlos here either, even if that percentage tennis has a big serve. When push comes to shove, Carlos has that innate ability to make a big play. And that's what separates him, even from Jannik. Trust me, I was an Oakland A's die hard. Moneyball only goes so far. It gets you deep, and then Derek Jeter does this:

• Here is a counterargument, offered by Discord Carrie: "Hear me out: this AO's vibes have been so bad everybody wants it to be memory holed MAYBE this should be the one Zverev wins, we get a reset on the Sincaraz streak, and otherwise act like it never happened." Our Discord is great and fun and you can join the great and funness here.
• A rankings note: If Carlos and Jannik win their semifinals than Novak will leave Melbourne at No. 3.
• Per the ITF, this is just the 5th time in the Open Era that the Top 4 seeds have made the men's singles semifinals at the Australian Open and the second time since 2013 Australian Open that it's happened at any Slam (2019 Roland Garros)

• This is a crazy stat from the ITF: If Carlos and Jannik make the final, it will be the first time in the Open Era that the top two seeds contested the final in five consecutive majors:

• Carlos and Jannik could also become the 3rd pair of players to meet each other in the men’s singles final at all four Grand Slam tournaments, joining Djokovic and Nadal, and Djokovic and Murray. Shout out Andy Murray!

And on that note, I'm going to let some folks who are way more locked into the ATP preview the men's semifinals for me:

• I can't get it to embed at the moment, but NCR also previews the semifinals with Ben Rothenberg and Tumaini Carayol.

The Reads

• There will be a new Australian Open Women's Doubles Champion. The final will see [7] Danilina/Krunic vs. [4] Mertens/Zhang, who have saved match points en route to the final. (WTA)

• What a tournament for the soon-to-be formed Kubler-Inglis household. Both successfully qualified in singles, Maddison made the Round of 16, and now Jason is in the men's doubles final with Marc Polmans. They'll play either Granollers/Zeballos or Harrison/Skupski. Oh, and according to this report, SMEG has offered to kit out their kitchen:

• The Aussies also put a pair into the mixed finals: Olivia Gadecki and John Peers will try to end a 37-year drought when they play Kristina Mladenovic and Manuel Guinard. (AO)

• Jon Wertheim has a new mailbag up and it touches on Novak's ball-whacking, ESPN's gouging, and heat conspiracies. (SI.com)
• Serena's gonna do what Serena's gonna do when Serena chooses to do it. (People.com)

It’s safe to say, Serena Williams is not ready to talk about a potential return to professional tennis. 

The 44-year-old athlete had an awkward moment during a live interview on the Today show with Savannah Guthrie on Wednesday, Jan. 28, when Guthrie asked her about rumors she might be returning to the court. 

“Recently — tell me if I have this right — you reentered the drug testing pool, which some see as the precursor to a return to tennis,” Guthrie said to Williams. “So you know I have to ask, are you returning to professional tennis?”

Williams laughed at the question, asking Guthrie, “I mean, really? Are you asking this on the Today show? Oh my gosh.”

As Williams continued to avoid the question, Guthrie pressed, “Is that a no?” 

“Is that a no?” Williams asked, as off camera a man could be heard laughing. “All the people on your set that are laughing. This is distracting. You’re distracting us over there.”

• Diane Dees on the dark and disappointing side of tennis fandom. (Women Who Serve)
• You gotta feel for Lorenzo Musetti, who says he think he tore his adductor. (ATP)
• Don't make me tap the sign: Tennis is not an extreme sport:

• It was only a matter of time before tennis landed in Politico: "Lukashenko, Sabalenka and the politics tennis can’t escape."

Chris Eubanks takes on the takes: The tennis schedule, kit sponsorships, player injuries, and more

I caught up with the newly retired Eubanks to find out where he stands on all of the hottest tennis topics right now.

Hard CourtHard Court

• In Meme-orial:

• Bop of the Day: Timeless.

Alrighty, that's it for my Australian Open "coverage"! I'm out of town for the rest of the tournament, but I'll be back to bageling and whatnot next week as the WTA heads to Abu Dhabi, Ostrava, and Cluj-Napoca, and the ATP heads to Montpellier and Davis Cup. Yes, tennis happens outside of the Slams and no, it is not any lesser. Bookmark the site or subscribe to stay up to date. It's all free.