AO Semifinal Preview: Women!

The Australian Open semifinals are set.

Here we go.

[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [12] Elina Svitolina (5-1)

[6] Jessica Pegula vs. [5] Elena Rybakina (3-3)

In a Nutshell

• All four semifinalists have yet to lose a set.
• Svitolina (d. Andreeva, Gauff) and Pegula (d. Keys, Anisimova) have each scored back-to-back wins over Top 10 opponents and are going for a third.

• Sabalenka (10-0) and Svitolina (10-0) are the only undefeated WTA players of 2026.
• Sabalenka is a two-time champion at Melbourne Park and is into the semifinals for a fourth straight year. She's made the semifinals or better at the last six Slams. She's going for her fifth Slam.
• Rybakina was a finalist in 2023 (l. Sabalenka) and is into her fourth major semifinal. It is her first since 2024 Wimbledon. She's trying to win her second major.
• Pegula and Svitolina are into their first Australian Open semifinals. They're both trying to win their first Slam.

• This is Pegula's third major semifinal and first away from the US Open, where she was finalist in 2024 (l. Sabalenka).
• This is Svitolina's fourth major semifinal overall. She is set to return to the Top 10 for the first time since 2021.
• An American has been in the final of the last five Slams. Pegula has a chance to extend that streak to six.

The Narrative

I'm going to be out of town starting Thursday, so I'm going to go long on the four contenders so there's enough to chew on through the women's final.

This is Aryna Sabalenka's Australian Open to win. I say that because she's won the title two of the last three years and is the best hard-court player on tour. Last year's wire-to-wire World No.1 has yet to drop a set in 2026, posting a 10-match unbeaten start to the year.

BUT.

There's a reason that despite her dominant 2025 season, one where she made the semifinals of all four majors and the final of three of them, that she went into the US Open under the specter of going 0 for 4. She was nipped in three sets in the Australian Open final by Madison Keys, three sets in the French Open final by Coco Gauff, and three sets in the Wimbledon semifinal by Amanda Anisimova. She's a proven lock to get to the final four, but she's not a lock to lift the trophy.

A powerful rivalry: Sabalenka and Svitolina set for Australian Open semifinal showdown

Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina are set to meet in the Australian Open women’s semifinals. Sabalenka, a 27-year-old from Belarus, is aiming for her third Australian title in four years.

AP NewsJOHN PYE

Sabalenka has improved her game leaps and bounds over the last three years, so much so that the reason for her big-stage losses is never about the tennis itself. It all comes down to how she handles the mental pressure – some that she puts on herself, some that her opponents put on her – and that will be the big question over the next three days.

Against Elina Svitolina, Sabalenka faces a gritty and motivated – for all the tennis and non-tennis reasons – veteran, who is playing her first Australian Open semifinal. When it comes to the ignominious title of Best Active Player Yet To Make A Grand Slam Final, Svitolina is No.1 for me. Yes, there are colorable arguments for Belinda Bencic and Karolina Muchova, but neither has Svitolina's sustained pedigree: 19 WTA titles – including 4 1000s and the WTA Finals – and career-high No.3 is no joke.

There's no shaking off the fact that Svitolina is the sentimental favorite here, not just in this semifinal, but of all four semifinalists. I won't belabor the mom stuff because everyone else already is/has/will, but how amazing would it be if, in Gael's final season, Elina wins a Slam? We saw how she breathed life into 2023 Wimbledon with her stunning run to the semifinals as a post-maternity wildcard. It would be cool if she could breathe life into this one.

BUT.

Tennis matches aren't decided by narratives and feels, they're decided by the tennis. And there's no ignoring the 5-1 head-to-head for Sabalenka. The last time Elina scored a win was the WTA 250 Strasbourg semifinals in 2020. She's lost the next four, winning just one set over that span. Svitolina has become a markedly more aggressive player, but there's still one match-up that she can't shake: her second serve vs. Aryna's return.

Elina Svitolina aims to bring ‘light’ to war-torn Ukraine as she targets first Australian Open final

Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will face each other in the Australian Open semi-finals on Thursday

Yahoo SportsJohn Pye

For all the talk of the teenagers storming through the draw through Week 1, in the first time in what feels like forever, none of the major semifinalists are under 25 years old. Cue the Michael Jordan meme.

The oldest of the four is the late-blooming Jessica Pegula, who continues blooming late. Pegula made her breakthrough here at Melbourne Park in 2021, where she came into the tournament ranked No. 61 with a 2-6 career record at the Slams – including five first-round exits – and made the quarterfinals. That run sparked her transformation into one of the most consistent players in the Top 10, and every time I think "maaaaybe she's peaked", she's proceeded to used her racquet to tell me to STFU.

Five years on, she has a chance to leave Melbourne as the top-ranked American and a Grand Slam champion. It will take a herculean effort to do it – she could have to mow down four Top 10 players to do it, including the woman who has snuffed out all her deep Grand Slam runs in Sabalenka, but her 6-2, 7-6(1) performance against Amanda Anisimova has to give her the confidence.

I cannot emphasize enough how much players hate playing Pegula. In my experience, she has the biggest delta between how I see fans describe her game and how I hear players describe her game. When Iga Swiatek was on her 37-match win streak, she was earnest and open about how difficult it is to play Pegula and how much respect she had for her. Up and down the rankings, you hear the same thing. At her best – and even at her mid – she suffocates, outhinks, and outsteadies her opponents. And against big-hitters, she baits you until you self-destruct.

Here's how Madison Keys explained it: "It's a Catch-22 with her."

This is why when I see fans say "She doesn't have any weapons" or "She's a pusher", I get exasperated. Pegula doesn't beat you by overwhelming you. She beats you by taking what you give her. She's a tremendous student of the game. She watches a ton of film and can breakdown matchups quickly and intelligently. There's a reason why she was my go-to player to ask about other players or matches. She loves engaging with those questions because she thinks about it all the time anyway.

Rivalry Rewind: The best of Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina

Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina will face off for the seventh time in the Australian Open semifinals. Their head-to-head is all square at 3-3: Pegula won at Miami 2022, Guadalajara 2022 and the WTA Finals Cancun 2023, and Rybakina won at Miami 2023, the Billie Jean King Cup Finals 2025 and the WTA Finals Riyadh 2025. Watch the best points from the non-BJK Cup matches here.

Women's Tennis Association

If it wasn't 2am on a Tuesday, I would drop another 1500 words about how Pegula plays her tennis like some of the great NFL quarterbacks read defenses, go through their progressions and check downs, and then make split decisions on the safest but most effective pass. It's not a perfect analogy – and maybe this is my Niners bias showing here – but she's a systems quarterback. She protects the ball, manages the clock, doesn't take crazy risks, and lets the scoreboard do the work.

Pegula's "Catch-22" game is the reason she's an even 3-3 against one of the best offenses in the women's game. Rybakina scored a good win over Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals, which will surely give her a boost, particularly given her 49% first-serve percentage for the match. She still rained down 11 aces and won nearly 80 % of her first-serve points, but she benefitted a lot from Swiatek's imprecision.

If Keys' scouting report holds true, that the ball is staying low on RLA, it will be tough for Rybakina to maintain her offensive advantage from the baseline. She's still the favorite for this match given her form. She's the winningest player on tour since Wimbledon and has now won 18 of her last 19 matches. Her sole loss came to Karolina Muchova in Brisbane. If the serve is firing for her, good night Jess.

Elena Rybakina blows away Iga Swiatek to reach Australian Open semi-final against Jessica Pegula

Elena Rybakina took a significant step towards her second grand slam title as she overpowered and outplayed the second seed Iga Swiatek

The GuardianTumaini Carayol

Ever since Stefano Vukov's suspension was lifted last fall, Team Rybakina have been playing with purpose, with that purpose being to (1) make up for lost time and (2) rub it their critics' faces. She surged during the Asian swing to win Ningbo and make the Tokyo semifinals to secure a spot at the WTA Finals, where she ran the table to win the tournament and snub the WTA. It's an awkward vibe that has undeniably produced Rybakina's best tennis.

This tournament has been defined by absolute chalk on both sides of the ledger. It already made history a the first Slam in the Open Era to see the Top 6 seeds in both the men's and women's draws progress to the quarterfinals. Chalk and extended form points to a Sabalenka-Rybakina final.

But tennis – and the WTA in particular – loves a plot twist. And Australia loves an underdog. Last year it felt like we were hurtling towards a battle of No.1 and No.2 only for Madison Keys to go full Oppenheimer over a 72-hour span to give the sport it's most feel-goodyest major champion in years.

So all those 1500 words are just to say: I have no idea what's going to happen, I just want everybody to have a fun time. One riveting match could turn this all around.

Quick Hits

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• Matt Futterman looks at what it took for Elina Svitolina to make this Australian Open run, focusing in on her decision to take a break last fall. (The Athletic)

• With Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and Jessica Pegula speaking up, here's hoping we see some changes to the backstage fishbowl. (The Athletic via Yahoo)

“The question is, are we tennis players, or are we, like, animals in the zoo where they are observed even when they poop?” she asked in a news conference.

“OK, that was exaggerating obviously, but it would be nice to have some privacy. It would be nice also to, I don’t know, have your own process and not always be observed. It would be nice to have some space where you can do that without the whole world watching.”

Świątek pointed to the private areas at Wimbledon and Roland Garros as evidence that a balance can be struck.

“At Wimbledon there are courts like Aorangi, like people with accreditation can get there, but it’s without the fans. On Roland Garros there’s Jean-Bouin. There are some spaces that you can at least go when you need to, but there are some tournaments where it’s impossible and you are constantly observed, if not by the fans who can just buy some ground passes and go to your practice, then by the cameras.

“We’re tennis players. We’re meant to be watched on the court, and in the press. That’s our job. It’s not our job to be a meme when you forget your accreditation. Oh, it’s funny, yeah, for sure. People have something to talk about, but for us I don’t think it’s necessary.”

• Here's Jess' full answer on whether this might be taken up by the Player's Council:

• Eva Lys will be out for a few weeks after hyperextending her knee at United Cup (OUCH):

• Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner! Jenny Brady won her first-round match at the ITF 100K in San Diego. (Tennis Temple)
• Owen Lewis takes a look at one of the stars of the first week in Melbourne, Iva Jovic. (Second Serve)
• Sloane Stephens and Stacey Allaster have been named to the board of the Women's Sports Foundation.

• Amanda Anisimova snapped at her box during her loss to Pegula and...I guess all of a sudden it's a sin for tennis players to care about winning tennis matches?

• Simon Cambers takes a look at the toughest head-to-heads in women's tennis and the secret to turning them around. (ESPN)

• I have the Washington Post sports department in my thoughts. Everyone who loves sports should. There won't be anyone to aggregate and steal from if there are no journalists on the ground and in the room.

Fun Corner:

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