Bagel Bites: Viva!

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• Previously on The Bagel: Good match, good game.
• The first leg of the Sunshine Double is in the books and somehow, the two best hard-court players on either tour won the Indian Wells and it felt....surprising? Impressive? "Oh wow, they really did that"? Yeah, I don't think it really makes sense either but having your head and heart in full agreement is an incredibly rare occasion anyway. (The Ringer)
• So let's start with Aryna Sabalenka. She is, without question, not just the dominant WTA World No.1 but she's the, without question, best player on the WTA Tour right now. After taking February off to chill out, get a dog, and a ring, she marched into her second straight Indian Wells final without losing a set. This should be chalk, right?

• 22-20. Before Sunday, that was Aryna's career record in tour-level finals. That's a large sample size spanning nearly 10 years – she made her first final at 2017 Tianjin, where she lost to Maria Sharapova.
• Ok, you know, but the bulk of that was early in her career before her last three years of ascension. What if start the count in January 2021 when she started the year in the Top 10 for the first time. Her record in finals from then until Sunday morning? 14-16.
• Courtney, you're being an asshole. You're pointedly ignoring just how much better she's become since solidifying herself in the WTA Top 2. Ok, sit back down Colonel Jessup. Let's take it at January 2023, where she started the year inside the Top 5 and has never left. Her record in finals until Sunday morning? 12-12.
• The numbers don't lie. Just like they didn't like when ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER won EVERY precursor award leading up Sunday and y'all still tried to tell me I was in for a world of hurt.

• So for all of Sabalenka's incredible improvements over the last three years, the one thing she can't shake is her shakiness in big finals. Or little finals, if you want to be mean and rude about Stuttgart, which I would never. Becoming reliable in big finals is Aryna's version of Iga's "big hitters"/"fast surfaces" dilemma. It the doorknob in JURASSIC PARK. (TennisAbstract)

• That is a very long lead-up into me saying: Well, damn. Aryna Sabalenka winning Indian Wells for the first time is not news. What IS news is the manner in which she did it. Just two months ago, she led Elena Rybakina 3-0 in the third set of the Australian Open and lost 6-4.

At Indian Wells, Aryna Sabalenka vanquished her ghosts to turn heartache into triumph

INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka softened the disappointment of a second consecutive loss in the BNP Paribas Open final with humor. The runner-up’s trophy is a miniature replica of the winner’s — an opulent, Baccarat crystal sculpture, so heavy it requires a sturdy heave from any champion privileged to lift it. Sabalenka joked that if she stacked her two runner-up trophies on top of each other, she might be able to convince herself she had won the real thing. It was a go

Yahoo SportsAva Wallace

• Now facing the same player, one who has quietly turned around a head-to-head that was once 8-3 to Sabalenka to winning four straight and coming within one point of leveling it at 8-8, Sabalenka could have caved completely multiple times. She came out flat and lost the first set easily. She was down an early break and looked down for the count. Then she quietly – well, it WAS quiet for HER – cracked a racquet after that 1-0 game in the second set and proceeded to bounce back quickly. She won four straight games and forced a third.
• She served for the win at 5-4 and was broken easily. Then with Rybakina serving at 5-5, she had FIVE BREAK POINTS and squandered them all. Uh oh....here comes the choke. Nope. She held at love in the next game to force the tiebreak. Rybakina gets the early mini-break and leads 5-3. Pfft, here come the errors. Nope. Sablaenka reels her in to 5-5. Ice cold as ever, Rybakina smacks a winner and oop! CHAMPIONSHIP POINT ON HER OWN SERVE THIS IS DONE.
• Aryna Sabalenka said nah, not this time:

• I've thought about that 6-5 point a lot over the last 24 hours. Mind you, this came after Rybakina just lasered a backhand line winner that would have been the GSM dagger against anyone else. Yet there, was Aryna, taking on a great first serve into her help, taking two massive backhand swipes to take control of her destiny. Two points later, she won.
• Does this all wipe away her newly improved 23-20 record in finals? No, that's not how data works. But we'll see over the next few months. And if this was truly the birth of Sabalenka 3.0, then this is the match where it all happened.

• I have a confession to make: I genuinely thought Danill Medvedev would win on Sunday. I really thought he would become the first (maybe? please don't quote me on that) player to beat both Sinner and Alcaraz in a knockout tournament. This was me trying to shoehorn a narrative in: There is no bigger troll in tennis than Medvedev (complimentary) and it would be the trolliest thing in the world for him barely get out Dubai to make it to Indian Wells on time, spend press conferences complaining about tennis balls, hand Carlos Alcaraz his first loss of the year, and then stop Jannik Sinner by breaking him physically under the 95 degree desert sun to win the only hard-court ATP Masters he has not won and once again declare to the world that he is THE hard-court specialist who can challenge the duopoly, just like his idol Novak Djokovic.

• But bro, I cannot shoehorn jack shit if you're going to just lose seven points in a row from 4-0 up in a tiebreak. I have no answer to that.

• Did Joao Fonseca play Jannik into form? I polled the nation of Brazil and the answer is yes. And who am I to argue with the great nation of Brazil.

• Jannik was outstanding in that final. Daniil was doing everything with that wiry body and big brain brain of his make Jannik work when he could, while being aggressive on the right balls to remind Jannik that no, you are not in full control out here. But Jannik was in Terminator mode all tournament. No sets lost, four complete routs over Svrcina, Shapo, Tien, and Zverev, and four clutch tiebreaks against Fonseca and Medvedev.

• Are we going to see two successful Sunshine Doubles this year?
• Away from the singles, we have Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend winning the women's doubles title over Anna Danilina and Alex Krunic, and Unseeded Guido Andreozzi and Manuel Guinard beating Arthur Rinderknech and Valentin Vacherot.
• There was also a mixed doubles exhibition, which was won by Flavio Cobolli and Belinda Bencic. The trophy contrast was outstanding:

• Props to the Brits: They had a great tournament. Cam Norrie and Jack Draper scored some signature wins to make the quarterfinals, while Sonay Kartal made it to the Round of 16. (BBC)
• Notable Miami withdrawals: Novak Djokovic (right shoulder), Emma Raducanu (illness), Tallon Griekspoor (left hamstring), Maya Joint (low back), Sonay Kartal (low back). (BBC)
• Can't stop, won't stop: Here are your Miami Draws. Women's main draw begins on Tuesday, men's begins on Wednesday.

• Carlos could face Fonseca in his second-round opener. (ATP)
• Know Your Lore: It's kind of crazy that it's been 10 years since Raymond Moore turned Indian Wells finals day on its head. That was a wacky day to be in the press room. (The Athletic)
• Marinko "Mad Dog" Matosevic has been issued a four-year ban for multiple anti-doping violations including blood doping. (ABC.au)
• From the ITIA release:

A hearing was scheduled to take place via video conference on 9 February 2026. In the weeks preceding the hearing, Matosevic ceased to engage with the arbitration process, before issuing a statement via media, making an admission to one blood doping charge.  Matosevic elected not to attend the hearing despite multiple notifications, and the hearing took place as scheduled.

• This is the "statement via media' they're referring to:

• As always, we read Todd Spiker's tournament recap on Mondays. (WTA Backspin)

Sabalenka is the ninth woman to win Indian Wells, Miami (where she'll next defend her title) and a hard court major, and just one of seven of that group to win *both* the AO and U.S. titles.

17-1 on the season, this was the first of Sabalenka's 2026 wins that *didn't* come in straight sets.

• Victoria Mboko, Jessica Pegula, Elina Svitolina and Linda Noskova. Put them on the hot list along with Aryna and Elena.
• Elena Rybakina is the new World No.2. (WTA)

Alexandra Eala and Cristina Bucsa also break significant new ground this week, both entering the Top 30 for the first time. Eala, making her tournament debut, reached the last 16 after advancing via retirement past Coco Gauff, and climbs three places from No. 32 to No. 29. Merida champion Bucsa extended her winning streak to six by making the second round and is up one place from No. 31 to No. 30.

• I'm going to have to call that a day on this slightly shorter Monday Bagel. I'm in Los Angeles for the week and have a spicy hot pot date in a few minutes. But I'll be back later with something absolutely none of you asked for and most certainly none of you want: a long-ass rant about movies.