Down, but never out.

If there is one thing that remains distinctly true and unwavering about sports it is that sports will never stop sportsing. There's a reason why, while every other entertaining industry is cratering and pivoting and reinventing and having existential crises in the face of traditional business models being shattered for no goddamn good reason, sports continues to thrive. As the cliche goes, sports is the only reality television worth watching. We simply couldn't script it if we tried.

Cuz Lord Baby Jesus knows, I've tried. For 10 years I was in the business of selling this cute little niche sport called women's tennis. Part of that meant trying to research, report, and read the tea leaves to nudge forward burgeoning storylines. I analogized it to surfing, a sport I have never done nor ever actually want to do. But I appreciated the Johnny Utah of it all nonetheless.

Every day, I paddle my board past the late breaking waves and I sit there and watch the water, in hopes of seeing the big wave that no one else sees. Ok yes, so I was more into just staring at water than actually surfing. I'm lazy like that.

In less than 24 hours, Iga Swiatek will face Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon final. Philosophically and on paper, that's not that wild. Both made WTA 500 finals just a few weeks ago on grass. Amanda did it at Queen's (she lost to Tatjana Maria), Iga did it at Bad Homburg (pipped by Jess). For all the chatter of Iga sucking on the turf, she is a junior Wimbledon champion. Before Amanda took her mental health break in 2023, she had already made a Grand Slam semifinal at 2019 Roland Garros. In fact, if she doesn't blink, she beats Ashleigh Barty in that match and would have been favored to beat Marketa Vondrousova in the final.

If, if, if, yeah yeah yeah, I hear you, Rafa. But that result was always a "what if" in my mind.

All that is to say, both arrived at Wimbledon in good form on grass and had the pedigree to set up a run to Championship Weekend.

And yet!

Sports.

Amanda's three-set win over Aryna was incredible. All credit to the No.1, she kept that pressure on through the very end. This was not gifted in any way – Amanda took it. Down an early break in the third set, Amanda just kept coming. She served for the win at 5-3 only to get broken. She responded by breaking for the win, sealing it with an absurd forehand that left the entire stadium – and Sabalenka – stunned. It was audacious, courageous, and a full flipping of the script on that 2019 Roland Garros semifinal.

Does she have what it takes to stop Iga's potentially career-redefining run to a sixth Grand Slam title? It speaks volumes about the noise and the lore surrounding Iga – and to be fair, she has contributed to it herself – that people seem way more surprised that she's in the Wimbledon final than Amanda. This despite the fact that at the start of the tournament, Iga had the same Wimbledon record as tournament favorite Aryna, 11-5, and the same number of grass court titles, which would be zero.

The prevailing opinion surrounding Iga's run is that the hot and dry temperatures have created conditions that suit her. She, the queen of footwork, has better traction on grass when it's dry. The heat has sped up the courts and the ball is bouncing higher, which both feeds into her contact point and makes her topspin forehand even more effective. She's also putting up outstanding serving numbers.

Side note: this constant slagging of Iga's serve over the years has been a big pet peeve of mine. I'm sorry that you don't like the motion but statistically it is absurdly effective. She has been consistently in the Top 3 in service games won, which is the metric that matters.

Iga steamrolled a hobbled Belinda in the semifinals, busting out the bakery to produce a Bagel Bite. I will be suing for trademark infringement, don't worry.

But was it all a little too easy? Is this final set up perfectly to be a trap match for Iga? Maybe! This is the first tour-level meeting between these two contemporaries, who each possess the very game that can undo the other. Iga will benefit from having played through a draw of hitters who could have (should have?) upended her: Collins, Tauson, Samso, Belinda. She didn't drop a set to any of them.

But that Amanda backhand, man. As Lindsay Davenport said on Tennis Channel, what makes it so devastating is that it's so hard to read. Amanda hides it so well. And having a backhand that you can drive down the line can be a game-breaking shot against Iga (see Ostapenko, Krejcikova, Andreeva, and what Coco has done against her recently). If that specific shot is on from the jump AND Amanda serves like she did against Aryna...I'm just saying.

Then again, Iga being 5-0 in Grand Slam finals ain't nothing. As Andy Roddick said on Served:

"It's weird, we talk about Iga a lot, like, 'Oh, does she get tight, You can see the stressors, mentally, on her.'

"Guys, she has never lost a Grand Slam final. Some people get celebrated for being mentally tough. People thought I was a fighter. Yeah, I wasn't undefeated in Grand Slam finals, newsflash. I would love to be as mentally up and down as Iga Swiatek, I'll tell you that shit right now."

"She is playing fantastic. I don't know that I've ever seen an improvement since Pete Sampras year-to-year on a certain surface. He hated grass from 90-92, then 93 he was like this tournament is going to be mine many, many, many times."

So when it comes to storylines on Saturday, you can't ask for more. For Iga to end her 12-plus month title drought by winning Wimbledon, all in the face of six months of ridiculous levels of scrutiny and criticism of not just her but her team – the win would be sweeter than any version of British or Polish strawberries and cream. It would be a level of vindication that even I, a varsity-level hater, could not even fathom.

And for Amanda, who is set to make her Top 10 debut on Monday, a win would be yet another feel-good American story in 2025. When I spoke to her ahead of her comeback back match in 2024, I asked her when was the last time she felt happy on the tennis court before her break:

"Probably last year [2022] around Wimbledon," Anisimova told WTA Insider from Auckland, New Zealand. "It's been a really long time, so it's just really nice to feel this way again."

I'm not in the business of trying to script these things anymore. But either way, this is going to be one heck of a Disney ending.

Here are the nuts and bolts of what's at stake on Saturday:

Swiatek is seeking her 23rd overall title, 6th Grand Slam title, and first at Wimbledon or on grass anywhere. It would be her first title of the season, with her last coming over a year ago at 2024 Roland Garros. She's the second Polish player to make a Women's or Men's Wimbledon final (Radwanska did it in 2012) and looking to become the nation's first Wimbledon champ.

A win for Iga would be her 100th Grand Slam win and she would be the fastest to 100 GS wins since Serena in 2004. She's already the youngest to reach six Slam finals since Justine Henin in 2006 and the youngest to reach finals on all three surfaces since Henin in 2003. Something about baseball caps, I guess.

After falling to World No.8 after her semifinal loss to Aryna at Roland Garros, Iga is already at No.4 and can rise to No.3 with the title. She'll be No.2 in the Race to the WTA Finals regardless. Not bad for such a shitty season, no?

Anisimova came into the tournament ranked No.12 and will make her Top 10 debut on Monday. She could make her Top 5 debut if she wins the title, which would be her second of the season (she won her first WTA 1000 at Doha in February) and fourth overall. Like Iga, it would be her first career grass-court title. She will surge up the Race Leaderboard to No.6 and can go as high as No.4 with the title.

Amanda is looking to keep the American sweep going at the Slams, following Madison in Melbourne and Coco in Paris. She would be the first American to win Wimbledon since Serena in 2016 and the youngest American since Serena in 2003. She would be the seventh American woman to win Wimbledon in the Open Era.

I'm going to do a live watch-along on Twitch on Saturday. Feel free to join the fun!