Or are we dancer.

I don't know what I'm doing, I'm sorry.

Or are we dancer.
Photo by Maximalfocus / Unsplash

Full transparency: I am not an ATP expert. I was once, over 10 years ago, but locking into the WTA was a full-time 24-7 job. I had little bandwidth for much else.

So. I am not going to sit here and pretend that, at this very moment, I have the bona fides to proffer a meaningful series of thoughts on the Wimbledon men's final between No.1 Jannik Sinner and No.2 Carlos Alcaraz. I could certainly pretend and perform a seemingly intelligent preview, but...I don't think that would be very interesting to anyone.

What do I know. I will work to get my base knowledge up to speed, but I'm just being honest here!

So, in true ATP Outsider fashion, all I have are broken notes and a few questions that I hope get answered in a few hours when these two very nice boys (I do know for a fact that they are very nice people!) play this very big final, which we all hope is 10% as entertaining as what we saw five weeks ago in Paris.

  • According to Tennis Channel's betting partner, Carlos is a 51% favorite. According to IBM, Jannik is a 53% favorite. I dislike both of these things – betting and nonsense predictors – so whatever!
  • I have read the ATP website. I learned that Carlos leads the head-to-head 8-4 and HOLY CRAP WAIT...he's won their last FIVE meetings? That's wild!
  • OH DAAAAAAAMN, Carlos hasn't lost at Wimbledon since....JANNIK?!? Haha that's amazing. In their only grass-court meeting, Jannik beat him in four sets in the fourth round in 2022. Carlos has run the table here since. But hmmmm....
  • It is wild to me that Iga is older than both these two. That's wacky!
  • Carlos and Jannik have won the last six majors and seven of the last eight. The gap is so real.
  • I was tempted to oversimplify this and say Jannik owns the hard courts and Carlos owns the natural surfaces but upon fact-checking my hypothesis it turns out Jannik has beaten Carlos on all three surfaces and five of Carlos' eight wins came on a hard court. So there goes that!
  • Does a hot worn down grass court play like a hard court or a clay court? Well if you were to gauge it off Iga's title run...both!
  • Darren Cahill said that after Jannik's insane 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3) 7-6(2) loss to Carlos last month in the RG final – a match that saw Jannik hold three championship points – Jannik took the whole bowl of candy from the transport desk. I love that. I think that's a darn good sign that dude was able to process it all and not be too in his feelings. I think that bodes well for him today!
  • Spencer has a point and the replies are very funny:

Alcaraz/Sinner is going to rule especially because we can watch this man do work while there's clearly cartoon dog music playing in his head the whole time

BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL (@edsbs.bsky.social) 2025-07-11T18:12:51.511Z

kid's just vibes let him be vibes

  • Whoa, Carlos is on a 24-match win streak? And has won 33 of his last 34 matches? God bless this rollercoaster of a career.
  • My gut says Jannik is winning today. But then I saw on Tennis Channel that Jim and Brett were also picking Jannik and Lindsay was picking Carlos. In this house we stan Lindsay so....Vamos, Carl!