Preview: Cincinnati Open Finals

After much heat and renovation talk, the dust has settled and we have our Monday final set for the Cincinnati Open. They're two very good finals, which for me, a tennis writer, means it's a good story regardless of who wins.

Those are the best days.

With that, please enjoy this very robust and thorough preview of the men's and women's finals:

[1] Jannik Sinner vs. [2] Carlos Alcaraz (H2H: 5-8) – 3pm ET

Hello, hello, ATP Outsider here! Didn't we just do this? I feel like we just did this? And...I don't think I really have much to add? I'm sorry!

Here are some interesting things I have learned about this final:

• Jannik is on a 26-match win streak on hard courts and he has not lost a set in Cincy. That's very good!
• His last loss on a hard court came to Carlos in that awesome Beijing final last fall. Intriguing!
• Carlos is on a 16-match win streak at the Masters 1000s. These two win so much it's absurd and, quite frankly, unsportsmanlike. Leave some for the other kids!

• This is the fourth meeting in three months between the two. It certainly feels that way!
• If Carlos wins he will lead the ATP Tour in titles this season. I swear to god, some of you nerds talk about him like he's wildly inconsistent or something lol.
• Carlos said this: “I know that Jannik, without a doubt, is the best player in the world on hard courts and probably on every surface right now, so it’s going to be a great match and I have to be ready for that.”

• Jannik is obviously the ATP No.1 but Carlos has the lead in the ATP Race to Turin, which as we all know is, effectively, the Race for Year-End No.1. Explains the ATP: "Should Sinner triumph and improve his record for the season to 27-3, he would trail Alcaraz by just 1,190 points heading into the US Open."
• Confession: I totally thought Carlos already won Cincinnati because apparently I have completely retconned that 2023 final against Novak, where he had a match point. Sorry, Novak!

[3] Iga Swiatek vs. [7] Jasmine Paolini (H2H: 5-0) – 6pm ET

So let me get this straight: Clay court and slow hard court specialist Iga Swiatek is one win away from having a season where she did not win a clay or slow hard court title but did win Wimbledon and Cincinnati? Well that is just goofy.

Iga had a pretty chill and breezy path to her third straight Cincinnati semifinal, but before the crusty haters could scream the c-word – "cakewalk" – she played her best hard-court match of the year to come from a break down in the first set and beat Elena Rybakina 7-5, 6-3.

Everything that Team Swiatek would want to see out of Iga was present in this performance. She was serving and striking well, and after getting broken in the first set by a lights-out Rybakina, the brim of her cap never dipped low. She continued to play with discipline and belief, circling her prey and patiently waiting for her moment to strike. There was no panic.

With Rybakina serving for the set at 5-4, Iga hit the NOS and took her game to another level. She would win four straight games from 5-3 down to take the first set and then dominated the second to score her fourth straight win over Elena, all coming this year – a year in which she was supposedly "slumping" btw. She's now flipped the H2H decisively to her side – the idea that Rybakina owns her probably has to be shelved for a while – and she'll go into New York knowing that she just upended one of (the?) best fast-court players on one of the fastest courts in the world.

"At the beginning, I was surprised that I'm able to keep up with the pace, because we played so fast," Iga told reporters after the win. "I just wanted to be there when Elena starts making mistakes, b/c I think it's impossible to play such a good level throughout the whole match. I'm happy that I was there and I wasn't frustrated when she was acing and playing so perfectly from the beginning."

A quick word on Elena: She showed some great tennis this week, most notably with her wins over Madison Keys and No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. But this habit of faltering at the finish line of sets and matches is now a trend. She lost from MP up in DC (l. Fernandez) and Toronto (l. Mboko). In Berlin, she had four MPs on Aryna before losing in a third-set tiebreak. What's even more worrying: this is not a player with an easily breakable serve. Once she gets in a winning position, you would expect Elena to slam the door. She isn't doing that right now. And if I'm the WTA locker room, I'm taking notice of that.

With a chance to return to World No.2 with the win (at least per the unofficial Live Rankings site – and secure a No.2 seed in New York, which...avoiding Aryna until the final ain't nothin' – Cincinnati is now Iga's to lose. I know that sounds harsh, but it's impossible to ignore the numbers, which are thoroughly lined up against the eminently lovable Jasmine Paolini. She's taken one set in 10 against Iga, and in four of their five prior meetings, she won more than three games just once (2025 Bad Homburg, 6-1, 6-3).

But Jasmine! Last week, there was a debate in my Discord about whether Jasmine could be considered "a fluke". I politely argued that I don't think you can "fluke" your way to two Grand Slam finals and two WTA 1000 titles. And now here she is in yet another big final. Long live the ice sausage!

A few quick hits:

• Iga is trying to win her first Cincinnati title, second title of the year (after Wimbledon), and 24th in her career.
• Cincinnati is one of the four WTA 1000 titles that Iga has yet to win, along with Dubai, Canada and Wuhan, which she has never played. It's hard not to believe she won't finish her career with the full set.

• Jasmine is going for her second WTA 1000 title of the year, having already won Rome – in both singles and doubles – in the spring. Remarkably, it would be her third WTA 1000 title. It's really remarkable the career she's been able to build.
• According to the unofficial live rankings, Jasmine has moved up one spot to No.8 by making the final. That's huge. She'll be a Top 8 seed in New York.

See you Monday!

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