US Open draws are out

Hello, friends! A US Open final was held last night on Arthur Ashe Stadium in front of a packed crowd and a US Open title was defended and two US Open champions have been crowned. So you know what that means: it's time for the US Open draw ceremony!

Everything is fine and everything makes sense. Don't overthink it. THEY certainly didn't.

The Men's and Women's singles draws dropped earlier today and, I mean, they're fine! TL:DR – but please read tho – Nothing super crazy, but I'm very much looking forward to seeing how it all plays out. Let me know your thoughts on it all in the comments!

Ladies first: Quick take on the Women's draw:

• Draw winner: Iga Swiatek. And she deserves it given what she did for the USTA by keeping her commitment and playing the mixed doubles instead of doing what any sane singles player would have done and withdrawn. With her Cincy title, she moved up to No.2 to snag the No.2 seed from Coco Gauff and her quarter is...very nice. First seed she could face is Anna Kalinskaya, then either Ekaterina Alexandrova or Diana Shnaider, then either Amanda Anisimova, Elina Svitolina, Beatriz Haddad Maia, or Sofia Kenin. Survive all that and she'll have made the semifinals or better at all four Slams for the first season of her career. The Top 20 seeds that could be her semifinal opponent? Coco, Madison, Mookie, or Dasha. Could have been worse!
• Draw loser: Aryna Sabalenka. Honestly, I'm not as down on Aryna as some are – you'll never find me in a camp that thinks a straight-set loss to Elena Rybakina is cause for panic – but I also think it will be hard for her to ignore the fact that if she doesn't defend here, she will go Slamless this season. And I don't know how deep Aryna is in WTA lore, but if you're a scholar, you can already hear it:

• Aryna leads the top half of the draw and that's where all the floaters and unseeded-and-loomings are....looming. Her first seed could be Washington D.C. champ and former US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez. The it could be Clara Tauson or Elise Mertens. Get to the quarterfinal and it could be Jasmine Paolini, Elena Rybakina, Veronika Kudermetova, or McCartney Kessler. Floating in the water through those rounds are unseeded Alex Eala, Emma Raducanu, and Marketa Vondrousova. Straight up, Aryna should take care of all that. Buuuuuuuut, if there's one thing that Aryna really can't stand, it's an adverse crowd. And there are quite a few names in these early rounds that could get inspire the New Yorkers, like Leylah, Emma, Jaz, etc.
• Aside from No.1 Aryna and No.2 Iga splitting their draw fortunes, this whole thing is pretty wide open. There are just too many question marks at the top of the game and not a lot of encouragement to be found in recent form. No.3 Coco – who is 4-4 since winning Roland Garros – fired Matt Daly and is already standing in the rain trying to retool her serve with biomechanical coach Gavin McMillan.

• No.4 Jess hasn't been sharp since beating Iga to win Bad Homburg. She's gone just 2-4 since that title and has not won back-to-back matches in her last four tournaments, which is CRAZY considering three of them were North American hard-court events. Rough stretch for Jess, who was already defending the Canada title, Cincinnati final and now has the US Open final points dangling.

• Has anyone seen No.5 Mirra? She hasn't made it past the quarterfinals at any tournament since her nutso run in the spring to win Dubai and Indian Wells. She opted to skip Cincinnati due to a left ankle injury. The US Open has been far and away her worst Slam, too. She's never made it past the second round.
• No.6 Madison has played well to back up her Australian Open win and remains ever dangerous. Does she have another seven wins in her? I'm not sure, but she's in the bottom half of the draw and could be the woman that sends Petra Kvitova into retirement. I would actually love that symbolism, so apologies to Diane Parry, but I'm going to need you to step aside for Petra in Round 1. Overall, this is a doable quarter for Madison if everything is aligned. Her first seed could be Marta Kostyuk, with Muchova or Noskova in the fourth round and Gauff, Kasatkina, Osaka, or Frech as the possible seeded quarterfinal opponents. Could she do it all and knock off Iga and Aryna B2B AGAIN to bookend the Slam season?

• Beyond the Top 5, the three standout players of the summer hard courts have been Jas, Elena, and Vicky Mboko. I'm curious whether that loss to Iga in the Cincinnati semifinals undid whatever momentum Rybakina was building – all the scar tissue of her season seemed to reappear in that 5-4 game – but she should feel good about where her game was overall. Jasmine is always in there with a shot to make everyone's life difficult – and she'll be a crowd favorite, I have no doubt.
• As for Vicky, after the very wise decision to skip Cincy, the 18-year-old will make her US Open debut with A LOT of eyes on her. But if there's one thing anyone who has spoken with her can say about her, Vicky Mboko has a solid head on her shoulders and doesn't seem the type get rattled by much. Her matches will be must-watch affairs, just to get more data points on whether we have the real thing here or one that is still very much a work in progress. Her first-round match is no joke: The kid who knocked out FOUR GRAND SLAM CHAMPIONS to win Montreal, will get a crack at another: she will face Barbora Krejcikova in 1R.
• Here's my hit for the Guardian on Vicky from after her win:

Victoria Mboko’s Montreal magic: the Canadian teen who toppled four grand slam champions

From chasing autographs as a child to lifting the trophy in Montreal, Victoria Mboko’s breakout run has announced a fearless new force in women’s tennis

The GuardianCourtney Nguyen

• This will be the last professional tournaments for Petra Kvitova (who I really hope plays Madison in 2R), Danielle Collins (vs. Jaqueline Cristian 1R) and Caroline Garcia, with CarGar potentially playing Daria Kasatkina in 2R – there would be worse ways to go out....
• Has Naomi Osaka had time to bounce back from her disappointing showing in the Montreal final? She's finally seeded at a Slam again – first time since 2022 Australian Open – and my God, she was phenomenal in Montreal until she wasn't. She'll open against Greet Minnen and then face either Katerina Siniakova (eep!) or Hailey Baptiste, and then could get Daria Kasatkina or – and this would be REALLY FUNNY – Caroline Garcia. IYKYK:

Q. What are your thoughts about facing Caroline Garcia for a third time in three months?

NAOMI OSAKA: Have you asked her?

Q. Not yet.

NAOMI OSAKA: Let me hear her thoughts first (laughter). Man, we're friends at this point. We're just, you know, work buddies. We see each other all the time.

It's funny. I just want to be seeded so I can just stop playing her. – 2024 Miami

• First Round: Venus Williams vs. Karolina Muchova!
• For my fellow connoisseurs: Maya Joint THE GOAT faces a qualifier in 1R and could face No.8 seed Amanda in 2R.
• 1R Aura unmatched: Iga Swiatek vs. Emiliana Arango!

Quick attempt at a take on the Men's Draw:

• That is certainly a draw!
• I do not know who many of these men are! I'm sorry!
• I DO however know enough to exclaim "Oh!" upon seeing the following:
  • Possible 2R between Jannik Sinner and Alexei Popyrin, who was really great in his attempted title defense of Toronto a few weeks ago,
  • A Bublik-Cilic 1R
  • Oh holy crap! Musetti vs. Mpetshi Perricard 1R????
  • Is Arnaldi-Cerundolo a thing? I feel like that's a thing maybe?
  • NOOOOOOO AHAHAHAHHAHA Novak vs. LEARNER?!?
  • Oh! Cam Norrie vs. Seb Korda 1R?
  • Awwww Frances and Yoshi!
  • Holger vs. Bob!
  • I am intrigued by Tallon vs. Mannarino.
  • There's no way Reilly servebots Carlos out of the tournament, right? RIGHT?????
• So that's what I got. Um...see you on September 7th for the latest installment of Sinner vs. Alcaraz. Pick up a copy of The Changeover at your local bookstore or library!
• I'll be doing some livestreaming during the US Open over on Twitch. Follow me there at pandaxprs12 to get notifications when I go live. You can also join our growing Discord to chat with me and other fans during the tournament, suggest links for the Bagel Bites, and just have a general fun time.