Bagel Bites: Mixed bags

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• Previously on the Bagel: You go, Gauff Coco!
• Let's jump right on into the main news of the day: US OPEN Singles Draws.

• A reminder re the World No.1 scenarios: Either Aryna, Elena, Coco, or Jess will leave New York with the No.1 ranking. It would be a first for Elena, Coco and Jess.
  • In pole position is No.2 Elena: She is the only one of the four in control of her own destiny: she can take it outright by making the semifinals. She could do it even earlier if Aryna, Coco and Jess lose earlier. But she doesn't need any help. Make the semis, and No.1 is yours.
  • The only path for Aryna, Coco or Jess to win the title AND Elena has to lose before the semis.
• With that in mind: Aryna and Jess are in the same half of the draw. The projected quarterfinals in that top half would be Aryna vs. Linda and Jess vs. Mookie. Also floating in Aryna's quarter is 11th-seed Marta Kostyuk and Barbora Krejcikova, who went 0-2 in Canada and Cincy, but who I would just never want to play early in a tournament if I'm a top player. Elina Svitolina is also in Jess' quarter, but who knows how her ankle is feeling. Not good enough to avoid a withdrawal in Cincinnati, but good enough to play the mixed doubles. So, indeed, who knows.
• The other half of the draw is anchored by No.2 Elena, No.4 Coco, No.5 Mirra, and No.8 Iga. Also in this bottom half are last year's finalist, Amanda Anisimova, who looked finally back in form in Cincinnati, Alex Eala, and Naomi Osaka, who should be well rested after skipping Cincinnati. The projected quarters here are Elena vs. Iga and Coco vs. Mirra.
• If Iga and Elena play for the third straight tournament, and Iga seals the 3-0 summer sweep....will she have single-handedly kept Elena from No.1 this year? That would be an amusing turn of events. Then again, sealing No.1 by beating Iga to make the semis would also be pretty sweet for Elena.

• Over to the men, where it sure is nice to see Carlos Alcaraz back in a draw. He'll open against Roman Safiullin and could face Tommy Paul in the Round of 16. He's in the same quarter as Ben Shelton, who opens against Tallon Griekspoor. Not an ideal draw for Shelton – who everyone is tapping as America's best hope for the title – as he could play Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils in the Round of 16.
• Last time we spoke, Stan Wawrinka was the odd man out of the US Open wildcard sweepstakes. But he's back in after Patrick Kypson withdrew and his award is a Wimbledon first round redux against Matteo Berretini, with a twist: the winner plays Novak Djokovic. I'm sorry Matt, but you're going to have to clear the way for Stan and Novak to go at it one last time.

U.S. Open draw: Wawrinka vs. Berrettini rematch, winner faces Djokovic

The U.S. Open draw ceremony was held on Thursday afternoon. Stan Wawrinka faces Matteo Berrettini in round one.

The GrandstandRicky

• The top half of the draw snags Rafael Jodar, who lands in the same section as Alex De Minaur. Whoever gets through that could face the top seed in the quarterfinals. This half also has Flavio Cobolli, Taylor Fritz, Learner Tien, Jakub Mensik and Felix Auger Aliassime.

• The 2026 US Open crowned its first champion and, yes, they did it before they even released the singles draws. Congratulations to Grand Slam Champion Karolina Muchova and Jakub Mensik. They ended the six-week drought of Czech champions. The good people of Prague can breathe a sigh of relief. (ATP)

• Rather expectedly, the US Open was quick to try and launder its mixed doubles exhibition and put it alongside the other three real Mixed Doubles Championships. I mean, yes, technically it is the "same" "thing" but also "no" "it is not".

• And at this point, the US Open should actually just lean into that instead of trying to nestle it alongside the traditional majors. I am happy to openly clown on the existence of this event, while simultaneously acknowledging its absolute success. And yeah, as I said last year, I think the other Slams would be stupid not to adopt this format – though Wimbledon would likely never because you can't be playing on that grass.
• Because let us never forget that this US Open Mixed Exo has (1) an illusory set of entry "rules", (2) an incredible amount of appearance fee money, (3) offers 5x more prize money to the champions (1M USD) than other Slams offer (150K Pounds at Wimbledon), (4) leaves out the best players in the actual discipline who would gain direct entry in any other tournament, and (5) is just not taken all that seriously by its own contestants. I don't think Laver Cup is a real event either but even those guys take it more seriously than the singles players take this event.

• And so, as always, I leave this discussion of yet another tennis money-grab with this timeless gif. Just because you like something, doesn't mean it's good. Just because something makes money, doesn't mean it's good. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

• Ben Rothenberg is on the ground in New York, and he says the event lost a bit of luster this year. Maybe the novelty wore off, maybe the storylines died off, maybe the stars weren't in the final rounds. But that is the risk every time this event happens because YOU LITERALLY CANNOT STORYTELL MIXED DOUBLES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. It's a one-off featuring random-ass pairings! (Bounces)
• Much to my abject horror, I found myself agreeing with every sentence Carole Bouchard wrote here. (The Tennis Sweet Spot)

It’s a pity that tennis, becoming a sports culture thing and entering the mainstream, finds a way to mean…getting less open. If kids can’t experience watching these champions in the biggest matches, how are they supposed to want to be like them? Between subscription fatigue or headache and the ticket price hikes, good luck with that… But, like, if we’ve become the Met Gala, at least spread the word like one would spread the required dress code. Because right now at the US Open, it seems not everybody feels they’re attending or trying to attend the same event. It then becomes a choice, and that choice should be owned.

It’s also no wonder why we now get so many non-tennis activities… When you make people fork that much and when you’ve promoted yourself as the sports version of the Met Gala or the fashion week or an A-lister’s movie premiere, you’d better find something to show up for it in a guaranteed way. Because that’s the tennis catch: the cast, and so the show, ain’t guaranteed… And these days, you have an epidemic of injuries at the top. So $300, $400, $1000, or whatever ticket prices you want to name (before any food or beverage has been taken and shopping has been done) will not make up for it long if the core of your existence starts looking less ultra VIP. I’m curious to see if there will be pushback against how the top level of the sport is being turned into a cash machine… I guess the USO is already facing one, but will it make them course-correct?

• My two cents: No, the sport will not course-correct, because tennis is a reflection of the world and the world is not course-correcting. Private Equity – the cancerous idea and practice of extracting all value out of an asset at the expense of the workers (low pay, layoffs) and consumers (high prices, shitty products) before moving on to the next money-making scheme – is destroying everything around us. And as that goes unchecked, so goes tennis. The rich are getting richer and the poor are being told to shut up and be thankful we even get to be in their orbit.

• On that note, Jon Wertheim tries to dig into the why behind the US Open's ticket scalping nonsense and yes, the USTA's attempts to absolve itself from blame is...another word for nonsense. (SI.com)

The USTA’s fallback position is to throw up its hands and say, We’re helpless to stop reselling. This is, at a minimum, incomplete. I spoke with two lawyers over the weekend, both of whom claim the USTA is no innocent party here. Just as there are few regulations on scalping, there are few regulations on what an issuer (i.e., the USTA) can impose. The USTA could prohibit the resale of individual tickets. This might be hard to enforce, given that scalping is legal, but it could have a chilling effect on the resale market. As one lawyer told me, “Ticketmaster wants the USTA’s business. Especially given the resale market, the USTA can use its leverage if it wants to.”

• No one is claiming what the high prices are the result of anything illegal. NY Law is what it is, though who knows – lights Lina Khan candle – we could see that change over time. But this double-dipping on two separate sales of the same ticket and claiming augh our hands our tied? It's just gross-ass optics. It's happening because you want it to. Here's hoping this PR blowback will lead to changes next year.

• Congrats to Grigor Dimitrov for a successful US Open qualifying campaign.
• There are reports that The Athletic is in talks with Kalshi. Sigh. (Status)

• Jonathan Tannenwald talks a break from non-stop soccer to report from the WTA 125 in Philly. It would be great for tennis to have a permanent stop there. (Philadelphia Enquirer)

Guthrie called this first edition “an exploratory year for us and for the WTA in many ways,” and said he believes it might be a few years before a 250-level sanction opens up. But he didn’t rule it out either.“I would venture to bet this will be a 125 next year, but you just never know in tennis,” he said.

‘You start all over’: Linda Noskova battles fame and desire after Wimbledon glory

The women’s singles champion at SW19 on her off-court passions, growing up in Czechia, and the aftermath of achieving her dream

The GuardianTumaini Carayol

• The folks at Opta try to quantify the gap between Sincaraz and the rest of the ATP field. How does it stack up to the Big 4 Era? (The Analyst)

• Steve Tignor is one of my favorite tennis writers and someone whose work always inspired me when he wrote for the now effectively-defunct Tennis.com. He's started a Substack, which you can subscribe to here. (First Ball In)
• Jason Gay got a sit-down with Roger Federer and bragged about it. (WSJ)

• I don't know what happened here and call me crazy but I don't think millionaires should try and use social media to get working people fired. Like, if you have a complaint, you can call or email the company. This public shaming stuff is cringe, often boomerangs back on you, and just not a good look. (Twitter)

• I'm headed off to the San Francisco International Pen show, so I'll be leaving you all alone until Monday. Enjoy all the Media Day quotery and Day 1 shenanigans, friends!

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• Bop of the Day: Most misunderstood song this side of Born in the USA?