US Open Women's Semifinal Preview

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And then there were four. And, as the tennis gods would have it, it just so happens to be THE four. This is just the second time in the Open Era that the Top 4 seeds have made the US Open semifinals (1975: No.1 seed Evert, No.2 seed Wade, No.3 seed Navratilova, No.4 seed Goolagong). The last time it happened at any Slam was 2009 Wimbledon (No.1 seed Safina, No.2 seed S.Williams, No.3 seed V.Williams and No.4 seed Dementieva).

So if any casual in your office says "What's the big deal, of course the Top 4 seeds would make a semifinal) feel free to condescendingly correct them. How else are they gonna learn?

Coming into the US Open, everyone (me) was trying tie themselves (myself) into knots (I'm not flexible though) trying to tap a US Open champion that wasn't one of the Top 4. And there were reasons to doubt the Top 4 could make it through.

• Before this week, Aryna had made one semifinal since sweeping the Sunshine Double. THAT WAS IN MARCH. She lost to Sara Bejlek and Ekaterina Alexandrova in the hard-court leadups. And also, would she buckle under the pressure to retain No.1?

• Elena looked to have rediscovered her spark over the summer – she was a non-entity through most of the natural surfaces – but everyone (including me) was freaked out about an apparent leg injury. And also, would she buckle under the pressure to grab No.1?

• Jess has been as sturdy as ever this season, and the summer was no different. A final in Washington D.C. and Cincinnati and a lush plum Adidas kit that screamed "TROPHY HOISTER". But...would she buckle under the pressure of potentially getting No.1?

• Coco definitely looked like a legitimate pick, to be fair. She looked great in her title run in Cincinnati. But....would she buckle under the pressure of potentially getting No.1?

Well....NOPE! Each of them have looked outstanding in New York, and they come into Thursday semifinals fully battle-tested. And now that the No.1 ranking is off the table – congratulations to Elena, the WTA's 30th World No.1 – let's get down to business.

[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [3] Jessica Pegula (H2H: 9-4)

• Come Monday, Aryna will not be the WTA World No.1 Thus endeth her dominant 99 consecutive weeks in the WTA penthouse. I honestly think this could be the best thing for her. I've always seen her as a far more effective hunter than throne-sitter. I'd say the opposite about, say, Iga Swiatek, who is better as a throne-sitter than a chaser.
• Anyway, she is obviously the two-time defending champion here and trying to make her fourth consecutive US Open final. That's pretty absurd, actually. To master the Chaos Slam? That's a feat.

• Jess is...Jess. I could actually drop another 2500-word polemic on what a remarkable career she's built for herself, but I'll save that for another time. But at 32, she's playing the best tennis of her career, while bolstered by a level of confidence, assurance, and security that being a Top 5 stalwart for five years earns you.
• This will be the 14th meeting between these two, and there are no secrets. Contrast that to Elena-Coco, who have only played each other...TWICE? Crazy.
• Jess is the heavy underdog in this one. Her last two US Opens have ended on Aryna's racquet – in the 2024 final and the 2025 semifinal. But:

• They've not only split their last four meetings, but all four went the distance. That's a big shift from their previous nine matches, which were all straight sets but for one.

• The other good news for Jess is she got her stinker match out of her system. That three-set slog against Emma Navarro in the quarterfinals was...woof. But hopefully that got allllll that out of her system.

• The bad news for Jess: Aryna is back to winning tiebreaks. Her clutch effort against Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals – the first true test in an otherwise soft draw – may have been just what she needed to shake off alllllll that crud that built up over the last four months and lock in for what easily could be another title run.

[2] Elena Rybakina vs. [4] Coco Gauff (1-1)

• This is exciting! It's crazy that these two have only faced off twice. It's less crazy that both matches went the full three sets. And it's also just kinda weird that both matches happened in Toronto.
• One of those happened just a few weeks ago, with Rybakina winning to make that final.

• After cruising through the early rounds, both women overcame a panic moment in the quarterfinals. Rybakina had a cleaner turnaround, though she had to save some key break points late in the third set to end Zheng Qinwen's insanely resurgent run. While Coco saved match points to fight off Mirra Andreeva.

• I loved this rally because it reminded me of one of my favorite momentsfrom Coco from a couple of years ago, where she fully acknowledged the elephant int the room: her forehand. She knew players were going to attack her forehand to break it down and it was her job to "beat the scouting report".
• Can she beat that scouting report with a player who can take the ball quick into that side? And can her returning beat the best serve in the women's game? She has a good record against big hitters – just look back at her big wins over Aryna Sabalenka – but Rybakina is a different type of aggressive player.
• I asked Coco to explain it a few weeks ago in Cincinnati:

“Elena just doesn’t second guess. She has her way of playing. I don’t know, maybe in her head she has a Plan B or C, but I feel like she plays the same way every time and she’s very sure of her game. There’s obviously pros and cons to that. When she’s on, it’s really tough. Aryna, she’s similar but she’s added more things, like dropshotting and coming to net, so it’s a little bit different than she’s done in the past."

• Translation: Elena is a lot harder to rattle.

• Americans love underdogs and they'll have their pair to cheer for on Thursday. It's a tough ask for both Jess and Coco to put at least one American woman into the US Open final for the fourth straight year. But there's definitely a good vibe among the Americans this year at the US Open, with the an American man – Frances Tiafoe or Ben Shelton – guaranteed to be in the men's final. Who knows? Maybe that's the x-factor.